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The annual inflation rate rose to 6.3% in September

Mugur Isărescu

The annual inflation rate climbed to 6.3% in September 2021, from 5.3% in August, as non-food goods rose by 8.71%, food goods by 4.26% and services by 3.75%, according to data published Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) and cited by Agerpres.


According to INS, consumer prices in September 2021 compared to August 2021 increased by 0.8%. The year-to-date inflation rate (September 2021 compared to December 2020) is 5.6%, while the annual inflation rate in September 2021 compared to September 2020 reached 6.3%.

The average consumer price rate in the last 12 months (October 2020 – September 2021) compared to the previous 12 months (October 2019 – September 2020) is 3.6%.


Also, the harmonized consumer price index in September 2021 compared to August 2021 is 100.83%.

According to the INS, the annual inflation rate in September 2021 compared to September 2020 calculated on the basis of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) is 5.2%. The average rate of consumer prices in the last 12 months (October 2020 – September 2021) compared to the previous 12 months (October 2019 – September 2020) determined on the basis of the HICP is 2.9%.

Top price increases compared to September 2020:

Electricity – 24.65%

Edible oil – 23.84%

Electricity, gas and central heating – 21.51%

Oil, bacon, fat – 21.24%

Gas – 20.55%

Fuels – 16,77%

Potatoes – 12,61%

Tobacco, cigarettes – 7.11%

Sheep’s cheese – 6,88%

Margarine – 6,71%

Vegetables and canned vegetables – 6.37%

Fresh fish – 5,90%

Water, sewerage, sanitation – 5.84%

Fish and canned fish – 5,55%

Postal services – 5,55%

Bread – 5,52%

Cheese – 5,46%

Top price decreases compared to September 2020

Heating energy – 0,21%

Top price increases compared to December 2020

Electricity – 23.15%

Citrus and other southern fruits – 21.03%

Electricity, gas and central heating – 20.68%

Gas – 20.49

Edible oil – 19.83%

Oil, bacon, fat – 17.8%

Fuels – 13.99% – Other

Fruit and canned fruit – 8,50%

Margarine – 6,31%

Potatoes – 6,18%

Water, sewerage, sanitation – 6,16%

Tobacco, cigarettes – 5,55%

Postal services – 5,53%

Sheep’s cheese – 5,13%

Corn meal – 5,03%

Top price decreases compared to December 2020

Eggs – 2.24%

Fresh fruit – 1.33%

Air – 0.17%

The Central Bank  raised its inflation forecast

The National Bank of Romania has raised its inflation forecast for the end of this year to 5.6%, according to a presentation made in August by the governor of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Isărescu.

“After this peak which is already here, we have it here behind us, inflation (…) will exceed 5%, or will be around 5%. And I stress this because usually when we make a forecast at the end of the year, let’s say it will be 5.6%, as it is here, there is a tendency to say so: The National Bank is now forecasting 5.6% inflation, prices will rise by 5.6%. That is not the case. Inflation is already 5%, so we would rather see, of course with the action of monetary policy, which has already started to strengthen, we would rather see a moderation of price increases and this is our effort, to keep inflation between 5 and 5.5% until the end of the year so that then, due to the base effect the consumer price index in January already falls below 5%, around 4 and something percent. We have also pointed out the third quarter and the fourth quarter, the end of the quarter, so you can see that this 5.6% is not new. It’s not a forecast that prices will go up from now on. Our forecast is that through efforts, including in the monetary area, we will manage to keep prices somewhere between 5 and 5.5 percent. I am referring to the consumer price index. So the increases in the autumn will be very high. For the end of next year, because of the disappearance of the base effect in January with electricity and in the summer with natural gas, our forecast is that the consumer price index will go down to 3.4%,” said Mugur Isărescu.

Edited for English

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